Mountain Brook, Alabama 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

552
FXUS64 KBMX 132321
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
621 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 157 PM CDT WED AUG 13 2025

Rain chances will remain on the high end through the rest of the
afternoon and into the evening, especially across the eastern half
of Alabama. The remnant surface trough continues to move northward
into southern portions of the state, noted by a distinct cyclonic
swirl on radar between Evergreen and Greenville. Showers and
storms have developed to the north of this feature, with brief
heavy downpours for locations along the I-85 corridor. To the
north, additional widespread showers with embedded storms are
developing along the I-59 corridor. Most of this activity has been
triggered from an old outflow boundary that has moved southward
from early morning activity in northern Alabama and southern
Tennessee. The mesoscale features, along with 500mb shortwave
vorticity and perhaps even some orographic lift will continue to
develop widespread rains that will be heavy at times. Due to the
slow-moving and banding nature of the rainfall, we`ll have to
monitor for the potential of localized flash flooding along and
northeast of the Birmingham Metro. As a result, a Flood Watch has
been issued for northeastern counties along the I-59 corridor,
with a potential for expansion farther to the south toward the
I-20 corridor.

Showers and a few storms are expected to linger through the
overnight as what`s left of the surface trough finally eject
eastward into Georgia by Thursday morning. In the meantime, the 500mb
ridge will begin to broaden and expand westward over the northern
Gulf Coast by Thursday with a westerly flow developing over the
atmospheric profile. With sufficient surface heating and
instability through the afternoon, numerous showers and storms are
expected to develop across Mississippi and western Alabama. On the
synoptic level, a weak 500mb trough axis will be stretching
southwest from the Ohio Valley, with shortwave disturbances moving
across the Deep South within the westerly flow. I wouldn`t be
surprised if a few storms that developed tomorrow were on the
strong side, with a potential for downburst/microburst-type winds.
With a little drier air aloft and 15 to 20 knots of shear, that
may be just enough to keep our eyes on the radar. We`re seeing
storms just like that currently over the Golden Triangle, north of
the Highway 82 corridor in Mississippi.

56/GDG

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 157 PM CDT WED AUG 13 2025

Central Alabama will move into a fairly stagnant mid-level pattern
by Friday and into the weekend as the ridge begins to build
northward into the Great Plains states. Scattered, diurnally-
driven summer convection is expected during the afternoon Friday
and into the weekend as highs rise into the low and mid 90s. Heat
Risk will move into the Moderate to High categories during this
time, and may get close to Heat Advisory criteria at least for our
far western counties. Early next week is still trending hotter and
drier as the ridge builds to our north and drier northerly to
northeasterly flow works into the Deep South.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 613 PM CDT WED AUG 13 2025

As shower and thunderstorm coverage continues to decrease, low
clouds should quickly begin to increase in their place. CIGs are
expected to reach MVFR category by 14/03z, with additional drops
into LIFR expected over subsequent hours. Thunderstorms are
expected again tomorrow, with all terminals carrying PROB30s for
TSRA past 14/18z.

/44/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Moist summertime conditions will continue through the week, and
there are no fire weather concerns. Widespread shower and storm
development will continue through this evening, before a gradual
downward trend in rain chances begin on Thursday. 20-foot winds
will be from the south to southeast through Wednesday before
shifting to the west and southwest for Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     72  91  72  92 /  30  50  20  30
Anniston    72  89  72  90 /  40  50  20  40
Birmingham  74  91  73  92 /  30  60  20  40
Tuscaloosa  74  91  74  92 /  20  70  20  50
Calera      73  90  73  90 /  30  60  20  40
Auburn      73  89  73  89 /  50  40  20  40
Montgomery  74  92  74  93 /  30  50  20  40
Troy        73  90  72  92 /  30  50  20  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Thursday for the following counties:
Blount-Calhoun-Cherokee-Etowah-Jefferson-St. Clair.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION.../44/